Thunderstorm chances will increase Friday as a strong upper level storm system moves onto the Southern Plains to across the Four- State region.
An upper-level system moving from west to
east across the region on Friday should allow for moderate instability
to develop by late afternoon across parts of eastern Oklahoma and
east Texas. This will combine with strong deep-layer shear profiles of
60 to 80 kt - resulting in strong
winds and putting storms into a nearly continuous line. Wind
damage will be possible along the leading edge of this
line with the greatest potential in the Arklatex during the evening.
In addition, forecast soundings
across the Arklatex Friday evening show low-level shear profiles
sufficient for tornadoes. Supercells that develop in the line or
ahead of the line could be accompanied by a tornado threat. Isolated
large hail may also occur with cells that rotate. An isolated wind
damage and hail threat will be possible in much of the overnight
period as the line of storms approaches the Mississippi River.
This translates to:
Wind damage, isolated large hail, and a tornado threat is forecast
Friday and Friday night across parts of the southern Plains,
Arklatex, and Lower Mississippi Valley. The storm will be capable of
producing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and we could see rainfall
totals in the two inch range.